Friday, May 1, 2009

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round 2 Picks

Moving on to the second round...

The Sauce went an impressive 7-1 with its first round predictions including a perfect pick on the Capitals in 7. Now it gets more difficult. Only 8 teams remain and all of them are super talented, tough as nails and each team can say they are more experienced than they were two weeks ago.

Here we go...


Eastern Conference


#1 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Unlike the San Jose Sharks, the Bruins come into this round after an impressive regular season and a dismantling of their bitter rivals, the Canadiens. It's hard to say whether the layoff and rest will help them versus a Hurricanes team that miraculously stole game 7 from the Devils just a few nights ago.

These two teams are similar. The Canes are playing their best hockey all year which is a good sign, most importantly, their goalie Cam Ward is tending the nets like he did during the Canes' 2006 Cup run. The Canes have an advantage up front with their grit and experience. Guys like Rod Brind'Amour, Matt Cullen, Erik Cole, and superstar Eric Staal have been through this grind before. The Bruins don't know what to expect from Phil
Kessel, David Krejci, Milan Lucic and Chuck Kobasew.

On defense, the Bruins have the advantage with big man Zdeno Chara leading the way. Though the Hurricanes' improved defense is a major reason why this team was able to turn it on down the stretch. Former Flyers Dennis Seidenberg and Joni Pitkanen have looked like veterans manning the blue line over the past few months.


In goal it's a draw with Vezina Trophy candidate Tim Thomas battling the red hot Ward. The winner of the special teams play might tip the scales in
either direction. The Bruins have the advantage here and the Canes struggled against the Devils on the man advantage. Boston will need to get the power play clicking early to take advantage of their home ice in games one and two.

The Canes will need clutch goal scoring like they got in round one. Maybe not from Jussi Jokinen this time, but perhaps Sergei Samsonov or Tuomo Ruutu.


I like the Bruins as much as any team out there right now, but the Hurricanes were my pick to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. For whatever reason, in almost every season in the last 5 have we seen a Cup finalist that missed the playoffs the prior season. It's a mystery, but a common trend so the
Canes are my pick.

Key Player: Chad Larose, Hurricanes. This scrappy, agitating winger played huge against the Devils. He created room for Eric Staal by doing the little things in both zones. If he can continue this play, Staal will have more breathing room against Chara. If his play fizzles, the Staal line might go down with it creating high goal scoring expectations for the Brind'Amour line.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6


#2 Washington Capitals vs. #4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, and Evgeni Malkin. Without question the three best forwards in the NHL today. You'll hear sound-bites from all of these players redirecting the focus on the teams and not the superstar rivalries that exist, but don't believe them for one second. There is plenty of ego involved here. Both Crosby and Ovechkin have been battling for years to achieve the status of the NHL's top player, but it's been Malkin who brings the most complete game of the three and could be the NHL's MVP this season. Malkin led all players with 9 points in the opening round against the Flyers. The Flyers D had no answers for him in crucial situations throughout the series. It's very hard to imagine the Capitals will have an answer for him.

In round one, the Jordan Staal line was arguably the reason the Penguins prevailed over the Flyers. They consistently pinned Jeff Carter's line in their own zone for an entire shift. Depending on the line matchups here, we could see a very productive series from Staal, Tyler Kennedy, and Matt Cooke.

The x-factor in this series comes down to two players: Capitals goalie Simeon Varlamov, and Caps forward Alex Ovechkin. If Varlamov remains stoic in net and can frustrate the Penguins shooters, then we could see a very long series and a Capitals victory. Same goes for Ovechkin. If he can take games over, this will turn the tide.


But individual efforts do not win series' by themselves, and the Caps' Mike Green has been a disappointment so far leaving their second wave of attack very much in question. You also have to wonder why it took the Capitals seven games to defeat the New York Rangers. Yes, Henrik Lundqvist was possessed to start the series, but the Capitals outplayed them in almost every contest.

The Penguins have been on quite a roll since head coach Dan Bylsma took over and it will take a more
complete team to finally stop their momentum.

Key Player: Alexander Semin, Capitals. If the Penguins find a way to contain Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, they will look to Semin, who has average 32 goals per season since 2006-07.
Prediction: Penguins in 6


Western Conference

#2 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Anaheim Ducks
Why is it that the Ducks posed a real threat to the Sharks, but you don't get that same sense here. Ah, the Red Wings are a savvy bunch that have already won numerous Stanley Cups. But let's not forget, it was only two years ago when Scott Niedermayer hoisted the Cup over his head. So I believe we have the makings of a possible upset here. The easy to imagine it is the Ducks' toughness prevails over the Wings' finesse and rookie goaltender Jonas Hiller outplays Chris Osgood. Osgood had a very strong series versus the Blue Jackets but he will always be disrespected because of his sudden drop in play during periods of the regular season (and basically every year since 2000).

I like the Ducks defense here as they can certainly frustrate an offense like the Red Wings. It will be crucial for the Wings to have a strong down low presence with Johan Franzen and Tomas Holmstrom. They need to post up on Hiller's front door step and rattle the young netminder. These players do it better than any in the league. Add in the fact that the Wings D has a very high I.Q., which translates into
smart play. Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, and Brad Stuart can all bring a very accurate, low slap-shot from the blue line.

The Ducks' top forwards need to find room down low, and can ill afford to play this series on the perimeter. Guys like Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, and Bobby Ryan can dangle with the best of them, but it won't matter if they're not playing in the dirty areas.

I'm sensing an early lead for the Ducks, but a resurgence by the Wings gets it done in the end.

Key Player: Chris Pronger, Ducks. Pronger's play dropped off a bit this season, but the big man brings his best stuff in May. His physical play and active stick could drive the Wings forwards nuts. He'll need to throw Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Valtteri Filppula, and Jiri Hudler off their games early.
Prediction: Red Wings in 7

#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks
Ok, this series already started. I'm a cheater. Well, not really (see prediction). The Canucks pulled out an insane game 1 victory on Thursday night after blowing a 3-0 lead on home ice.

This is a series with two very evenly matched hockey clubs. The Canucks have a little more grit and experience, while the Blackhawks have the youth and flash to their games.

We already saw Patrick Kane come up big for the Hawks in game 1 even though they fell short... but that's a good sign. Nikolai Khabibulin will have to better if he's to keep up with Roberto Luongo at the other end. Lungo could be the difference maker if this is to be a low scoring series. Somehow I doubt that will happen with the firepower on both sides. The Blackhawks have an opportunity to shine here and to show the hockey world what Blackhawks hockey is about now and will be about for the future. With Joel Quennville behind the bench, he will push the right buttons to make sure this team stays on track.

The Canucks have shown a lack of focus during the regular season and in past playoffs. This should be a long series because of it. Who do the Canucks turn to up front if they're in trouble? The Sedins? Maybe, but when the going will get tough, I will go with the Blackhawks. This script is only halfway done... we still have a dramatic third act approaching where the Hawks fans are in for a heartbreaker.

Key Player: Kris Versteeg. This player continues to amaze me during an impressive rookie campaign. He was arguably the Hawks best player in round one and seems to do all the things required of a two-way hockey player. If he chips in with a clutch goal or two, wins faceoffs on a regular basis, and throws his weight around. He will be the catalyst for this team in a round two victory.
Prediction: Blackhawks in 7

No comments:

Post a Comment